The main workhorse of the Pakistan Air Force from 2014 will be the JF-17 Thunder medium-tech, multi-role fighter aircraft; developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC) in China and Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Pakistan. At least 150 JF-17s are expected to be procured by the Pakistan Air Force by the end of 2015 but, this may easily go up to 300. The JF-17 Thunder is a 4th generation, medium-weight multi-role fighter aircraft capable of using various types of Beyond-Visual-Range (BVRAAM) Air-to-Air Missiles, Within-Visual-Range (WVRAAM) Air-to-Air Missiles and Air-to-Surface Precision-Guided Munitions (PGM).

In addition, to the JF-17s the PAF will also procure up to 50 Chengdu J-10 fighter aircrafts from China, 96 (new and used) F-16 Fighting Falcons A/B/C/D Block-15 and Block-52+, 6 Saab 2000 Erieye AEW&C, 16 Air-to-Air Refueling Aircraft, 39+ K-8 Intermediate Jet Trainer and 12 C-130H w/6 reserve C-130H Medium Lift Transport Aircraft.

In light of Pakistan's significant contribution to the War on Terror, the United States and Western European countries, namely Germany and France lifted their defense related sanctions on Pakistan; enabling the country to once again seek advanced Western military hardware. Since the lift of sanctions, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) became heavily active in evaluating potential military hardware; such as new fighter planes, radars, land based air-defense systems, etc. The key factor had been the lifting of American sanctions on Pakistan; including restrictions on military combat aircraft - namely the Lockheed Martin F-16. However the urgent relief needed in Kashmir after the October-8th Earthquake forced the Pakistan Military to stall its modernization programme; so it could divert its resources for fuel and operations during the rescue effort.

The modernization stall would end in April 2006 when the Pakistani cabinet approved the Pakistan Air Force's proposal to procure 132 new fighters from the U.S and China. The Pakistan Government has launched the Armed Forces Development Programme 2019 (AFFDP-2019); this programme will oversee the modernization of the Pakistan Air Force from now to 2019.

TRAINING

The Pakistan Air Force currently operates between 500 to 530 active combat aircraft; its fleet is mostly comprised of F-7P and Mirage III/V aircraft. Although 70 to 90 of the Mirages were given the ROSE-I and ROSE-II/III upgrades - the airframe life of these aircraft is declining; and like the F-7P, will require replacement by 2014.
The main workhorse of the Pakistan Air Force from 2014 will be the JF-17 Thunder medium-tech, multi-role fighter aircraft; developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC) in China and Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Pakistan. At least 150 JF-17s are expected to be procured by the Pakistan Air Force by the end of 2015. The JF-17 Thunder is a 4th generation, medium-weight multi-role fighter aircraft capable of using various types of Beyond-Visual-Range (BVRAAM) Air-to-Air Missiles, Within-Visual-Range (WVRAAM) Air-to-Air Missiles and Air-to-Surface Precision-Guided Munitions (PGM). The aircraft will be capable of multi-weather as well as day and night operations; upgrades will be conducted on the JF-17 and will incorporate Infrared Search and Tracking (IRST) and Air-to-Air Refueling. Its avionics consist of a Pulse-Doppler radar with a track-and-search range of at least 100 km and targeting range of at least 70 km; the aircraft can engage multiple air or ground targets - as well as utilize Helmet-Mounted-Sight (HMS) and Electronic Counter Measure/Electronic Warfare (ECM/EW) systems. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a Galileo Avionica/Selex "Vixen" series AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar is being sought by PAF for use on its JF-17 (in the long-term). The JF-17 will replace the PAF's F-7P/FT-7P, Mirage-III/V, and Q-5 aircraft by 2013 - and be fully operational in large numbers by 2015. Recent interviews with the Pakistan Air Force commanders revealed the PAF has plans to procure at least another 50 JF-17s in addition to the base 150.
In addition to JF-17s the Pakistan Air Force is aggressively pushing for the acquisition of another two advanced fighter aircraft - which boast more range and payload, as well as considerably more advanced avionics and ECM/EW systems than the JF-17. Originally up to 75 F-16C/D Block-52 were supposed to be procured; however the tragic and catastrophic earthquake in Azad Kashmir forced the Pakistan Government to delay acquisition of F-16s. With the Kashmir relief operations draining the government's funds - the Defense Ministry was considering a significantly down-scaled F-16 order.
On April 12, 2006 the Government of Pakistan approved the purchase of Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 52+ and F-16A/B Block 15. The revised F-16 purchase includes the acquisition of 26 ex-Peace Gate-III and IV F-16A/B Block-15OCUs and 18 F-16C/D Block-52s with an option for 18 more; the purchase was finalized between the PAF and Lockheed Martin in October 2006. The total value of the F-16 package is 5.101bn U.S Dollars - if all options are excersized; the deal includes 500 AIM-120C5 BVRAAMs, 200 AIM-9M-8/9 WVRAAMs, 500 JDAM PGMs, and thousands of other air-to-surface bombs. Although the AIM-9X was not procured, the International Defence Exhibition & Seminar (IDEAS) at Karachi in 2006 revealed that the Pakistan Air Force was interested in the European IRIS-T for its F-16 WVR requirement. In addition to the 36 new built F-16C/D Block-52+ aircraft, the 60 F-16A/B Block 15 aircraft will go through the Mid-Life-Update - III upgrade (MLU-3); this would make the F-16A/Bs avionically on par with the Block 52+. Janes Defence Weekly reported that the Pakistan Air Force may order a second phase of 33 new-built F-16C/D Block 52+ and used F-16A/B Block 15s.
The F-16s and JF-17s will be reinforced with 36 Chinese CAC J-10A aircraft under the designation "FC-20". According to the PAF Air Chief, additional FC-20s are planned. The FC-20 will likely become the core of the PAF's fleet as a multi-role fighter, replacing the Mirage ROSE III/V and F-7PG by 2019.

AWE&C/AWACS CAPABILITY

The Pakistan Air Force had sought an Airbrone Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) system since the mid-1980s; although it had failed to acquire what it wanted (the E-3 Sentry) - it eventually did procure a system. On May 25, 2006 the Government of Pakistan approved the acquisition of up to 6-7 Saab-2000 Erieye AEW&C aircraft; the value of the deal is about 1bn U.S Dollars. This acquisition was in response to a long standing AEW&C requirement as well as the Indian Air Force's procurement of three Phalcon AWACS mounted on Russian IL-76 aircraft.
AEW&C capability provides the user with an airborne long-range radar which allows the user to, detect incoming enemy formations deep within enemy territory; as well as coordinate large-scale missions involving multiple forces (Army, Air Force, Navy) - and in peace time, coordinate search and rescue operations. According to the Air Chief of the Pakistan Air Force - Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed - all of the PAF's fighter aircraft will be datalinked with the Erieye system. Currently the F-16C/D Block 52+ and F-16A/B Block 15MLU-3 will utilize the American Link-16 datalink system with the Erieye; datalink would allow the F-16s to use the Erieye's radar without having to use their own (and exposing their radar signitures to the enemy). This would give the F-16's greater radar range as well as the ability to adapt to mission requirements or ECM/EW events without the use of a Digital Radio Frequency Memory (DRFM).
Currently it is unclear what datalink system the JF-17s and J-10s will use; however if the PAF's JF-17s are eventually equipped with Western radars, avionics, etc - they will likely use a Western datalink system with the Erieye.
However the J-10 may not be able to datalink with the Erieye (at least not without heavy modification and integration on part of PAF); this is mainly due to China and Swedens' reluctance to allow their respective systems to be exposed to each other's engineers and scientists. Because of this - the PAF may have to procure a Chinese AEW&C system; recently, Chinese firms have demonstrated their Y-8 based rotodome AEW&C in Pakistan. At the end of the International Defence Exhibition and Seminar in Karachi, the Pakistan Air Force and a Chinese aviation firm signed a MoU over the development and production of a long-range Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft.

AIR DEFENCE

The Pakistan Air Force begun its Air Defence modernization quite early with the procurement of six AN/TPS-77 land based three-dimensional tactical mobile radar systems from the U.S. This was reinforced with another six YLC-2 3D long-range and ten YLC-6 2D low altitude radar systems from China; the PAF is in the process of inducting these systems. Air Weapons Complex is on the forefront of the Pakistan Military's C4I program. The PAF is evaluating the Czech Vera passive-radar system, and will decide to purchase it or not soon. The PAF's air defence will join the Pakistan Military's joint Hi-Medium Air Defence (HiMAD) and Low-Medium Air Defence (LoMAD).
Modernization of the Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) fleet is part of the AFFDP-2019 programme; the PAF is planning to phase out replace its old Crotale short range SAM systems. Negotiations were underway for the MBDA Spada 2000 short to medium-range system. However, new reports suggest Pakistan is interested in a more advanced and longer term solution, such as the MBDA SAMP-T with Aster 30 medium range SAM. During IDEAS 2006, Diehl BGT offered the IRIS-T SL short to medium-range and IRIS-T SLS short-range SAMs to the Air Force and Army, respectively.
Since 2001, the Pakistan Air Force has desired a long-range SAM system; initially it was interested in the Chinese FT-2000, but no deal has been made. The PAF was also offered the Patriot II system by the U.S - but rejected it on unknown basis (likely cost); it reportedly negotiated with Russia for the S-300. In the end the PAF will likely procure the Chinese HQ-9/FT-2000 long-range SAM system. Pakistan will procure this system with local development and manufacturing capability, and perhaps use it as a basis for its anti-ballistic missile program.
The American Patriot III Long-Range and SL-AMRAAM Medium-Range SAM systems were display at the International Defence Exhibition and Seminar 2006 (IDEAS) in Karachi. The American representative there said that the PAC 3 and SLAMRAAM system was open to Pakistan, but an offer cannot be made without a formal request by the Pakistani Government.

LOGISTICS

The Air Force's logistical fleet is currently in the process of inducting six C-130E aircraft; after the induction of these aircraft the PAF's C-130 Medium-Lift Aircraft fleet will consist of roughly 12-16 aircraft. Four Indonesian CN-235s have been bought and inducted with another four or so likely to be ordered soon. It is unclear whether the PAF is pursuing a medium-lift transport aircraft to replace it's ageing C-130s; the C-130J was supposedly evaluated, but deemed too sophisticated and expensive for a prop-transport. The PAF may acquire the Chinese Y-9 or European A400 when the need to replace C-130s arises;but will likely not happen before 2012.PAF also has few Gulf streams for the Higher rank air force officer and government ministers.It had some Boeing-707s for transportation that have been disposed off.

TRAINING

As an air defense analyst, I am fully aware that the Pakistan Air Force ranks today as one of the best air forces in the world and that the PAF Combat Commanders' School (CCS) in Sargodha has been ranked as the best GCI/pilot and fighter tactics and weapons school in the world". As one senior US defense analyst commented to me in 1991, "it leaves Topgun (the US Naval Air Station in Miramar, California) far behind". -Sergey Vekhov May 1993 issue (pages 46-47) of Airforces Monthly, reputable UK-based airs defense magazine.
The aircraft and technology which will be inducted into the PAF will be drastically different and more advanced than what the PAF's trainer force currently operates. The fleet's current 1950-era T-37 and FT-5/6 aircraft cannot sufficiently train future JF-17, F-16 and F-10 pilots. With the massive induction of fly-by-wire aircraft, BVRAAMs, WVRAAMs, PGBs as well as HMS/HMD and datalink supported warfare, the PAF requires new trainer aircraft.

Currently the PAF has 12 new generation K-8 intermediate jet trainer aircraft, with another 27 or so on order. The K-8 will replace the PAF's aging Lockheed T-37 aircraft in the intermediate jet trainer role; another order of at least 11 K-8s may be placed in the near future. For the lead-in advanced fighter conversion role - the PAF will replace its FT-5s with a new aircraft; it is unclear what that aircraft will be. According to the former Air Chief - Air Chief Marshal (Retired) Kaleem Sadaat, a twin-seat JF-17 will be used for conversion. However, Hondgu - the manufacturers of K-8 - recently flew their L-15 advanced jet trainer; which was reportedly offered to the PAF during its development. Currently there is a requirement for at least 20-25+ advanced lead-in jet trainer aircraft; options include the twin-seat JF-17, Hondgu L-15 and perhaps even the KAI/Lockheed Martin T-50.

The Pakistan Air Force reportedly ordered 4 IL-78 Midas air-to-air refueling aircraft from Ukraine; these will apparently be used to support the PAF's JF-17 fleet. It is known when the deal was finalized - as this was confirmed by the PAF Air Chief - ACM Tanvir Mahmood Ahmad.